Serveur d'exploration sur la Covid et les espaces publics

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Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.

Identifieur interne : 000126 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000125; suivant : 000127

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.

Auteurs : Robin N. Thompson [Royaume-Uni] ; T Déirdre Hollingsworth [Royaume-Uni] ; Valerie Isham [Royaume-Uni] ; Daniel Arribas-Bel [Royaume-Uni] ; Ben Ashby [Royaume-Uni] ; Tom Britton [Suède] ; Peter Challenor [Royaume-Uni] ; Lauren H K. Chappell [Royaume-Uni] ; Hannah Clapham [Singapour] ; Nik J. Cunniffe [Royaume-Uni] ; A Philip Dawid [Royaume-Uni] ; Christl A. Donnelly [Royaume-Uni] ; Rosalind M. Eggo [Royaume-Uni] ; Sebastian Funk [Royaume-Uni] ; Nigel Gilbert [Royaume-Uni] ; Paul Glendinning [Royaume-Uni] ; Julia R. Gog [Royaume-Uni] ; William S. Hart [Royaume-Uni] ; Hans Heesterbeek [Pays-Bas] ; Thomas House [Royaume-Uni] ; Matt Keeling [Royaume-Uni] ; István Z. Kiss [Royaume-Uni] ; Mirjam E. Kretzschmar [Pays-Bas] ; Alun L. Lloyd [États-Unis] ; Emma S. Mcbryde [Australie] ; James M. Mccaw [Australie] ; Trevelyan J. Mckinley [Royaume-Uni] ; Joel C. Miller [Australie] ; Martina Morris [États-Unis] ; Philip D. O'Neill [Royaume-Uni] ; Kris V. Parag [Royaume-Uni] ; Carl A B. Pearson [Royaume-Uni, Afrique du Sud] ; Lorenzo Pellis [Royaume-Uni] ; Juliet R C. Pulliam [Afrique du Sud] ; Joshua V. Ross [Australie] ; Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba [Italie] ; Bernard W. Silverman [Royaume-Uni] ; Claudio J. Struchiner [Brésil] ; Michael J. Tildesley [Royaume-Uni] ; Pieter Trapman [Suède] ; Cerian R. Webb [Royaume-Uni] ; Denis Mollison [Royaume-Uni] ; Olivier Restif [Royaume-Uni]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32781946

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.1405
PubMed: 32781946
PubMed Central: PMC7575516


Affiliations:


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<nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria 3010, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
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<name sortKey="Mckinley, Trevelyan J" sort="Mckinley, Trevelyan J" uniqKey="Mckinley T" first="Trevelyan J" last="Mckinley">Trevelyan J. Mckinley</name>
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<name sortKey="Miller, Joel C" sort="Miller, Joel C" uniqKey="Miller J" first="Joel C" last="Miller">Joel C. Miller</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3086, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
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<title xml:lang="en">Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.</title>
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<name sortKey="Thompson, Robin N" sort="Thompson, Robin N" uniqKey="Thompson R" first="Robin N" last="Thompson">Robin N. Thompson</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
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<nlm:affiliation>Christ Church, University of Oxford, St Aldates, Oxford OX1 1DP, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT</wicri:regionArea>
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<nlm:affiliation>Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
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<name sortKey="Cunniffe, Nik J" sort="Cunniffe, Nik J" uniqKey="Cunniffe N" first="Nik J" last="Cunniffe">Nik J. Cunniffe</name>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
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<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT</wicri:regionArea>
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<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT</wicri:regionArea>
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<nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Manchester</orgName>
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<settlement type="city">Manchester</settlement>
<region type="nation">Angleterre</region>
<region nuts="2" type="region">Grand Manchester</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gog, Julia R" sort="Gog, Julia R" uniqKey="Gog J" first="Julia R" last="Gog">Julia R. Gog</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
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<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hart, William S" sort="Hart, William S" uniqKey="Hart W" first="William S" last="Hart">William S. Hart</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6GG</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
<region type="nation">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Oxfordshire</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Hans" sort="Heesterbeek, Hans" uniqKey="Heesterbeek H" first="Hans" last="Heesterbeek">Hans Heesterbeek</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Population Health Sciences, Utrecht University, Yalelaan, 3584 CL Utrecht, The Netherlands.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Population Health Sciences, Utrecht University, Yalelaan, 3584 CL Utrecht</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Utrecht</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Utrecht</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Utrecht (province)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="House, Thomas" sort="House, Thomas" uniqKey="House T" first="Thomas" last="House">Thomas House</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>IBM Research, The Hartree Centre, Daresbury, Warrington WA4 4AD, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>IBM Research, The Hartree Centre, Daresbury, Warrington WA4 4AD</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Warrington WA4 4AD</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Coventry CV4 7AL</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Keeling, Matt" sort="Keeling, Matt" uniqKey="Keeling M" first="Matt" last="Keeling">Matt Keeling</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Coventry CV4 7AL</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kiss, Istvan Z" sort="Kiss, Istvan Z" uniqKey="Kiss I" first="István Z" last="Kiss">István Z. Kiss</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QH</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université du Sussex</orgName>
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<settlement type="city">Brighton</settlement>
<settlement type="town">Falmer</settlement>
<region type="nation">Angleterre</region>
<region nuts="2" type="region">Sussex de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kretzschmar, Mirjam E" sort="Kretzschmar, Mirjam E" uniqKey="Kretzschmar M" first="Mirjam E" last="Kretzschmar">Mirjam E. Kretzschmar</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht, The Netherlands.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 100, 3584CX Utrecht</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Utrecht</settlement>
<region nuts="2" type="province">Utrecht (province)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lloyd, Alun L" sort="Lloyd, Alun L" uniqKey="Lloyd A" first="Alun L" last="Lloyd">Alun L. Lloyd</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="2">
<nlm:affiliation>Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Caroline du Nord</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Mcbryde, Emma S" sort="Mcbryde, Emma S" uniqKey="Mcbryde E" first="Emma S" last="Mcbryde">Emma S. Mcbryde</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Queensland 4811</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Mccaw, James M" sort="Mccaw, James M" uniqKey="Mccaw J" first="James M" last="Mccaw">James M. Mccaw</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria 3010, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne, Carlton, Victoria 3010</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Melbourne</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement>
<region type="état">Victoria (État)</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Mckinley, Trevelyan J" sort="Mckinley, Trevelyan J" uniqKey="Mckinley T" first="Trevelyan J" last="Mckinley">Trevelyan J. Mckinley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Barrack Road, Exeter EX2 5DW, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>College of Medicine and Health, University of Exeter, Barrack Road, Exeter EX2 5DW</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Exeter EX2 5DW</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Miller, Joel C" sort="Miller, Joel C" uniqKey="Miller J" first="Joel C" last="Miller">Joel C. Miller</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3086, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria 3086</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Victoria 3086</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Morris, Martina" sort="Morris, Martina" uniqKey="Morris M" first="Martina" last="Morris">Martina Morris</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Savery Hall, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Savery Hall, Seattle, WA 98195</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<region type="state">Washington (État)</region>
<settlement type="city">Seattle</settlement>
</placeName>
<orgName type="university">Université de Washington</orgName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="O Neill, Philip D" sort="O Neill, Philip D" uniqKey="O Neill P" first="Philip D" last="O'Neill">Philip D. O'Neill</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Nottingham</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Nottingham</settlement>
<region type="nation">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Nottinghamshire</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Parag, Kris V" sort="Parag, Kris V" uniqKey="Parag K" first="Kris V" last="Parag">Kris V. Parag</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>London W2 1PG</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pearson, Carl A B" sort="Pearson, Carl A B" uniqKey="Pearson C" first="Carl A B" last="Pearson">Carl A B. Pearson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>London WC1E 7HT</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Jonkershoek Road, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Jonkershoek Road, Stellenbosch 7600</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Stellenbosch 7600</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pellis, Lorenzo" sort="Pellis, Lorenzo" uniqKey="Pellis L" first="Lorenzo" last="Pellis">Lorenzo Pellis</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pulliam, Juliet R C" sort="Pulliam, Juliet R C" uniqKey="Pulliam J" first="Juliet R C" last="Pulliam">Juliet R C. Pulliam</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Jonkershoek Road, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Afrique du Sud</country>
<wicri:regionArea>South African DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), Stellenbosch University, Jonkershoek Road, Stellenbosch 7600</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Stellenbosch 7600</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Ross, Joshua V" sort="Ross, Joshua V" uniqKey="Ross J" first="Joshua V" last="Ross">Joshua V. Ross</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>South Australia 5005</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia" sort="Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia" uniqKey="Tomba G" first="Gianpaolo Scalia" last="Tomba">Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome, Italy.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, 00133 Rome</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Rome</settlement>
<region nuts="2">Latium</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Silverman, Bernard W" sort="Silverman, Bernard W" uniqKey="Silverman B" first="Bernard W" last="Silverman">Bernard W. Silverman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, St Giles', Oxford OX1 3LB, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, St Giles', Oxford OX1 3LB</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université d'Oxford</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Oxford</settlement>
<region type="nation">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Oxfordshire</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Rights Lab, University of Nottingham, Highfield House, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Rights Lab, University of Nottingham, Highfield House, Nottingham NG7 2RD</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Nottingham</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Nottingham</settlement>
<region type="nation">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Nottinghamshire</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Struchiner, Claudio J" sort="Struchiner, Claudio J" uniqKey="Struchiner C" first="Claudio J" last="Struchiner">Claudio J. Struchiner</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Praia de Botafogo, 190 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Brésil</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Escola de Matemática Aplicada, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Praia de Botafogo, 190 Rio de Janeiro</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Rio de Janeiro</settlement>
<region type="state">État de Rio de Janeiro</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Tildesley, Michael J" sort="Tildesley, Michael J" uniqKey="Tildesley M" first="Michael J" last="Tildesley">Michael J. Tildesley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Coventry CV4 7AL</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Trapman, Pieter" sort="Trapman, Pieter" uniqKey="Trapman P" first="Pieter" last="Trapman">Pieter Trapman</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Kräftriket, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, Kräftriket, 106 91 Stockholm</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Stockholm</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Stockholm</settlement>
<region nuts="1">Svealand</region>
<region nuts="1">Comté de Stockholm</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Webb, Cerian R" sort="Webb, Cerian R" uniqKey="Webb C" first="Cerian R" last="Webb">Cerian R. Webb</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Mollison, Denis" sort="Mollison, Denis" uniqKey="Mollison D" first="Denis" last="Mollison">Denis Mollison</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS</wicri:regionArea>
<wicri:noRegion>Edinburgh EH14 4AS</wicri:noRegion>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Restif, Olivier" sort="Restif, Olivier" uniqKey="Restif O" first="Olivier" last="Restif">Olivier Restif</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="4">
<nlm:affiliation>Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK.</nlm:affiliation>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES</wicri:regionArea>
<orgName type="university">Université de Cambridge</orgName>
<placeName>
<settlement type="city">Cambridge</settlement>
<region type="country">Angleterre</region>
<region type="région" nuts="1">Angleterre de l'Est</region>
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</affiliation>
</author>
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<series>
<title level="j">Proceedings. Biological sciences</title>
<idno type="eISSN">1471-2954</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2020" type="published">2020</date>
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<term>COVID-19 (MeSH)</term>
<term>Child (MeSH)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (immunology)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Coronavirus Infections (transmission)</term>
<term>Disease Eradication (MeSH)</term>
<term>Family Characteristics (MeSH)</term>
<term>Humans (MeSH)</term>
<term>Immunity, Herd (MeSH)</term>
<term>Models, Theoretical (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandemics (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (immunology)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control)</term>
<term>Pneumonia, Viral (transmission)</term>
<term>Schools (MeSH)</term>
<term>Seroepidemiologic Studies (MeSH)</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Caractéristiques familiales (MeSH)</term>
<term>Enfant (MeSH)</term>
<term>Humains (MeSH)</term>
<term>Immunité de groupe (MeSH)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (immunologie)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (prévention et contrôle)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (transmission)</term>
<term>Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Modèles théoriques (MeSH)</term>
<term>Pandémies (prévention et contrôle)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (immunologie)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (prévention et contrôle)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (transmission)</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie)</term>
<term>Éradication de maladie (MeSH)</term>
<term>Établissements scolaires (MeSH)</term>
<term>Études séroépidémiologiques (MeSH)</term>
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</keywords>
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<term>Coronavirus Infections</term>
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</keywords>
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<term>Infections à coronavirus</term>
<term>Pneumopathie virale</term>
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<term>COVID-19</term>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.</div>
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<AbstractText>Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.</AbstractText>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Christ Church, University of Oxford, St Aldates, Oxford OX1 1DP, UK.</Affiliation>
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<AffiliationInfo>
<Affiliation>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.</Affiliation>
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